Sunday, February 3, 2008

Gartner - "Second Life Descends Into the Trough of Disillusionment"


As much of the media focus (both positive and negative) has been on Second Life, some commentators worry that the world views Second Life as representative of the entire virtual worlds industry. And with more consumer success coming from fantasy worlds like World of Warcraft or youth-oriented worlds like Webkinz or Habbo Hotel, that makes it hard to track the space as a whole. "If there's one challenge, it is increasingly difficult and dangerous to cover a segment of the market without being aware of what is happening in other areas," said Prentice. "You can focus in one area, but you have to be increasingly aware of the other segments because it's changing people's attitudes. The success, growth, or decline of virtual worlds I'm convinced is based on people's attitudes." However, the adult market is still getting most of the mainstream focus, and it's not helping. "If you take the traditional adult market--by age not content, open virtual worlds like Second Life--my feeling is that as a collected concept, it is probably pretty much still heading down into the Trough of Disillusionment," Prentice explained. "I think there is farther to go." Steve Prentice from Gartner interviewed here - www.virtualworldsnews.com/2008/01/interview-farth.html#more makes some interesting points about the virtual world industry as a whole.

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